{
  "protocol": {
    "model": "course XGBoost; no class weights; fixed after fitting",
    "xgb_params": {
      "n_estimators": 800,
      "max_depth": 4,
      "learning_rate": 0.05,
      "min_child_weight": 100,
      "reg_lambda": 5.0,
      "tree_method": "hist",
      "enable_categorical": true,
      "eval_metric": "auc",
      "random_state": 42,
      "n_jobs": -1
    },
    "split": "test",
    "period": 2024,
    "status": "exploratory; previously observed temporal holdout",
    "n_train": 200000,
    "n_evaluation": 16142,
    "events": 2945,
    "features": [
      "idade_anos",
      "n_doses_antes_do_sintoma",
      "meses_desde_mar2020",
      "semana_epi",
      "vacina_covid_declarada",
      "coinfeccao_outro_virus",
      "cs_sexo",
      "cs_raca",
      "cs_escol_n",
      "cs_zona",
      "cs_gestant",
      "puerpera",
      "cardiopati",
      "hematologi",
      "sind_down",
      "hepatica",
      "asma",
      "diabetes",
      "neurologic",
      "pneumopati",
      "imunodepre",
      "renal",
      "obesidade",
      "out_morbi",
      "febre",
      "tosse",
      "garganta",
      "dispneia",
      "desc_resp",
      "saturacao",
      "diarreia",
      "vomito",
      "dor_abd",
      "fadiga",
      "perd_olft",
      "perd_pala",
      "outro_sin",
      "regiao",
      "capital_interior",
      "nosocomial"
    ],
    "repeats": 50,
    "permutation_seed": 42,
    "sampling": "all evaluation rows; no subsampling",
    "permutation": "one column at a time; common row order per repeat",
    "sd": "sample standard deviation across permutations; ddof=1",
    "uncertainty": "conditional on fitted model and observed patient set",
    "top10_criterion": "descending mean Brier increase across all features",
    "rank_ties": "average rank among all features in each repeat",
    "boxplot": "median, Q1-Q3, 1.5 IQR whiskers; all repeats shown",
    "before_sd": "zero across these repeats by construction; no resampling",
    "versions": {
      "numpy": "2.4.6",
      "pandas": "2.3.3",
      "scikit-learn": "1.9.0",
      "xgboost": "3.4.1"
    }
  },
  "original": {
    "brier": 0.1308077792641753,
    "logloss": 0.4090195758914495,
    "auc": 0.7644483948543638
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "feature": "idade_anos",
      "label": "Age",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.15425721535695675,
      "after_sd": 0.0007367159895299126,
      "difference_mean": 0.02344943609278143,
      "difference_sd": 0.0007367159895299126,
      "ratio_mean": 1.1792663725711885,
      "ratio_sd": 0.005632050277698428,
      "relative_increase_percent": 17.92663725711885
    },
    {
      "feature": "saturacao",
      "label": "Low oxygen saturation",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.13509784900135563,
      "after_sd": 0.0003282683998378406,
      "difference_mean": 0.004290069737180313,
      "difference_sd": 0.0003282683998378406,
      "ratio_mean": 1.0327967477264195,
      "ratio_sd": 0.00250954799236273,
      "relative_increase_percent": 3.2796747726419495
    },
    {
      "feature": "desc_resp",
      "label": "Respiratory distress",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.13361821685499858,
      "after_sd": 0.00023345496788520652,
      "difference_mean": 0.002810437590823282,
      "difference_sd": 0.0002334549678852065,
      "ratio_mean": 1.0214852480994072,
      "ratio_sd": 0.0017847177683043437,
      "relative_increase_percent": 2.1485248099407217
    },
    {
      "feature": "cs_escol_n",
      "label": "Education",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.13320743213796749,
      "after_sd": 0.0002239929583639524,
      "difference_mean": 0.002399652873792184,
      "difference_sd": 0.0002239929583639524,
      "ratio_mean": 1.0183448789306784,
      "ratio_sd": 0.001712382548071424,
      "relative_increase_percent": 1.8344878930678377
    },
    {
      "feature": "dispneia",
      "label": "Dyspnea",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.13309244263818504,
      "after_sd": 0.00018807029170601555,
      "difference_mean": 0.002284663374009732,
      "difference_sd": 0.00018807029170601555,
      "ratio_mean": 1.0174658065969893,
      "ratio_sd": 0.0014377607567680917,
      "relative_increase_percent": 1.7465806596989264
    },
    {
      "feature": "puerpera",
      "label": "Postpartum status",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.13293204740653877,
      "after_sd": 0.00011375998465217518,
      "difference_mean": 0.0021242681423634486,
      "difference_sd": 0.00011375998465217518,
      "ratio_mean": 1.016239616285155,
      "ratio_sd": 0.0008696729299442378,
      "relative_increase_percent": 1.6239616285155023
    },
    {
      "feature": "regiao",
      "label": "Region",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.13266102667282684,
      "after_sd": 0.00019848770511764107,
      "difference_mean": 0.0018532474086515138,
      "difference_sd": 0.00019848770511764107,
      "ratio_mean": 1.0141677155523658,
      "ratio_sd": 0.0015173998536951,
      "relative_increase_percent": 1.4167715552365845
    },
    {
      "feature": "cs_raca",
      "label": "Race / skin color",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.1320308180843072,
      "after_sd": 0.00013898443120624393,
      "difference_mean": 0.0012230388201318965,
      "difference_sd": 0.00013898443120624395,
      "ratio_mean": 1.0093498936149805,
      "ratio_sd": 0.0010625089118404365,
      "relative_increase_percent": 0.9349893614980509
    },
    {
      "feature": "out_morbi",
      "label": "Other comorbidities",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.131913690895504,
      "after_sd": 0.00019694013232832543,
      "difference_mean": 0.0011059116313287115,
      "difference_sd": 0.00019694013232832543,
      "ratio_mean": 1.0084544790650047,
      "ratio_sd": 0.001505568961082904,
      "relative_increase_percent": 0.8454479065004739
    },
    {
      "feature": "capital_interior",
      "label": "Capital / interior",
      "before": 0.1308077792641753,
      "after_mean": 0.1318941918134717,
      "after_sd": 0.00011424513527881388,
      "difference_mean": 0.0010864125492964006,
      "difference_sd": 0.00011424513527881387,
      "ratio_mean": 1.008305412379965,
      "ratio_sd": 0.0008733818120104993,
      "relative_increase_percent": 0.8305412379965071
    }
  ],
  "equations": {
    "difference": "$FI_j = e_{\\mathrm{perm},j} - e_{\\mathrm{orig}}$",
    "ratio": "$FI_j = \\frac{e_{\\mathrm{perm},j}}{e_{\\mathrm{orig}}}$",
    "brier": "$\\mathrm{Brier} = \\frac{1}{n}\\sum_{i=1}^{n}(p_i-y_i)^2$"
  },
  "walkthrough": {
    "feature": "idade_anos",
    "after": [
      0.15357205661076917,
      0.15512181428756172,
      0.15511792041413652,
      0.1547665805354361,
      0.15460160263808598,
      0.15527176175514487,
      0.1539580864207996,
      0.15555497221544995,
      0.15447596798867574,
      0.15580893458741457,
      0.15438263821026854,
      0.15432880761425755,
      0.15324391954776878,
      0.15372985081341223,
      0.15423012771093703,
      0.15462712659942104,
      0.1543927316886931,
      0.1549807345842507,
      0.15435609497502553,
      0.1551926809281398,
      0.15412454710902168,
      0.15288548144422656,
      0.15365343187647248,
      0.1538050217115787,
      0.15339702695931706,
      0.1536995509207244,
      0.15406216558646338,
      0.15466124891813313,
      0.15430661711816046,
      0.15423963783724293,
      0.1534744150311371,
      0.15523024788420642,
      0.15465529510084486,
      0.1538937558337909,
      0.15239341796625144,
      0.15456511748225507,
      0.15320183513827787,
      0.15536065213633746,
      0.1544605224408473,
      0.15330460457915054,
      0.15541490892524107,
      0.15386038804456034,
      0.1537807306260286,
      0.15321019262311186,
      0.15482664938554863,
      0.1540741592699574,
      0.15459052355476613,
      0.15408679264916422,
      0.15427749845808136,
      0.153649921111289
    ],
    "difference": [
      0.022764277346593864,
      0.024314035023386416,
      0.024310141149961217,
      0.023958801271260793,
      0.023793823373910672,
      0.024463982490969566,
      0.023150307156624306,
      0.024747192951274644,
      0.02366818872450044,
      0.025001155323239266,
      0.023574858946093236,
      0.02352102835008224,
      0.022436140283593475,
      0.022922071549236922,
      0.02342234844676172,
      0.02381934733524574,
      0.023584952424517802,
      0.024172955320075407,
      0.023548315710850226,
      0.02438490166396448,
      0.023316767844846376,
      0.022077702180051256,
      0.02284565261229718,
      0.022997242447403393,
      0.022589247695141756,
      0.022891771656549098,
      0.023254386322288073,
      0.02385346965395782,
      0.023498837853985155,
      0.02343185857306762,
      0.02266663576696179,
      0.024422468620031113,
      0.023847515836669553,
      0.023085976569615585,
      0.021585638702076138,
      0.023757338218079765,
      0.022394055874102564,
      0.02455287287216215,
      0.023652743176671986,
      0.02249682531497524,
      0.024607129661065763,
      0.023052608780385037,
      0.02297295136185329,
      0.022402413358936557,
      0.024018870121373326,
      0.0232663800057821,
      0.023782744290590824,
      0.023279013384988917,
      0.023469719193906058,
      0.022842141847113695
    ],
    "first_after": 0.15357205661076917,
    "first_difference": 0.022764277346593864,
    "mean_after": 0.15425721535695675,
    "mean_difference": 0.02344943609278143,
    "sd_difference": 0.0007367159895299126,
    "train_end": 2022,
    "validation_year": 2023,
    "audit": "global values in slides 2, 3 and the code summary are identical before rounding",
    "max_trace_error": 0.0
  },
  "study": {
    "cohort_n": 1282970,
    "train_sample_n": 200000,
    "input_n": 40,
    "train_end": 2022,
    "validation_year": 2023,
    "test_year": 2024,
    "splits": {
      "test": {
        "letalidade_pct": 18.2,
        "n": 16142,
        "obitos": 2945
      },
      "train": {
        "letalidade_pct": 31.4,
        "n": 1242680,
        "obitos": 390769
      },
      "val": {
        "letalidade_pct": 18.9,
        "n": 24148,
        "obitos": 4572
      }
    },
    "sample_seed": 42,
    "scoreboard": [
      {
        "model": "dummy",
        "label": "Prevalence baseline",
        "auc": 0.5,
        "brier": 0.1689
      },
      {
        "model": "lpm",
        "label": "Linear probability model",
        "auc": 0.7232,
        "brier": 0.1552
      },
      {
        "model": "logit",
        "label": "Logistic regression",
        "auc": 0.7214,
        "brier": 0.1545
      },
      {
        "model": "arvore",
        "label": "Decision tree",
        "auc": 0.7041,
        "brier": 0.1434
      },
      {
        "model": "floresta",
        "label": "Random forest",
        "auc": 0.7403,
        "brier": 0.1454
      },
      {
        "model": "xgb",
        "label": "XGBoost",
        "auc": 0.7564,
        "brier": 0.1356
      }
    ],
    "search_counts": {
      "arvore": 24,
      "dummy": 1,
      "floresta": 10,
      "logit": 7,
      "lpm": 1,
      "xgb": 30
    },
    "bootstrap_repeats": 200,
    "winner": "xgb",
    "xgb_params": {
      "n_estimators": 800,
      "max_depth": 4,
      "learning_rate": 0.05,
      "min_child_weight": 100,
      "reg_lambda": 5.0,
      "tree_method": "hist",
      "enable_categorical": true,
      "eval_metric": "auc",
      "random_state": 42,
      "n_jobs": -1
    },
    "test_auc": 0.7644483948543638,
    "test_brier": 0.1308077792641753,
    "selection_rule": "Highest 2023 validation AUC; paired-bootstrap one-SE technical tie rule; calibration gap, parsimony, determinism as tie breakers. No tie occurred. Test excluded from selection.",
    "cohort_rule": "Hospitalized, broad COVID definition, closed outcomes, symptom onset from 2020-02-26, age present and at most 120 years; displaced rows excluded.",
    "balancing": "No class weights or resampling in the reference. Separate balancing comparison did not replace it.",
    "missing": "Unknown categorical values retained as explicit categories; they are not recoded as no. XGBoost uses native categorical inputs.",
    "status": "exploratory; previously observed temporal holdout"
  },
  "dependence": {
    "results": [
      {
        "key": "cardiopati",
        "label": "Heart disease alone",
        "after": [
          0.13117102981491505,
          0.13121900573348996,
          0.1311363691696379,
          0.13116539662009394,
          0.1311627740640629,
          0.13106421680852454,
          0.1311396250059743,
          0.13118586972924395,
          0.13109930694019045,
          0.131150109948594,
          0.1311502839458351,
          0.13121088920802249,
          0.1311302711786196,
          0.13124478549489227,
          0.1310036954445864,
          0.13112756714702706,
          0.131134385479049,
          0.13123459080632355,
          0.13129221382716122,
          0.1312274000538313,
          0.1311970278239462,
          0.13118590825632784,
          0.1312055519165211,
          0.13121497809593471,
          0.13114536537651925,
          0.13119574424701053,
          0.13124429737887708,
          0.13115816503399724,
          0.131138095595661,
          0.13111348934529518,
          0.13114242112241278,
          0.1311842694121896,
          0.13119349976241573,
          0.13122131614859,
          0.13117087549053633,
          0.13117457046846395,
          0.1311600211974091,
          0.13118586517123676,
          0.13115642787623863,
          0.1311486053272833,
          0.1311992482949668,
          0.1311666810942035,
          0.13125737913323818,
          0.1311875942748802,
          0.1312429837086928,
          0.13120136533684526,
          0.13113306136466077,
          0.13116095802542652,
          0.1312293529843535,
          0.13115169390190531
        ],
        "before": 0.1308077792641753,
        "after_mean": 0.13117433199172226,
        "after_sd": 5.026246842582494e-05,
        "difference": [
          0.000363250550739741,
          0.00041122646931465723,
          0.00032858990546258404,
          0.0003576173559186324,
          0.00035499479988759797,
          0.0002564375443492306,
          0.00033184574179898063,
          0.00037809046506864785,
          0.0002915276760151464,
          0.0003423306844186902,
          0.0003425046816598054,
          0.0004031099438471797,
          0.00032249191444430614,
          0.0004370062307169631,
          0.00019591618041109315,
          0.00031978788285175197,
          0.00032660621487368147,
          0.00042681154214824213,
          0.0004844345629859137,
          0.0004196207896559889,
          0.000389248559770905,
          0.00037812899215253215,
          0.00039777265234580694,
          0.00040719883175940885,
          0.00033758611234394054,
          0.0003879649828352205,
          0.0004365181147017727,
          0.00035038576982193703,
          0.00033031633148569717,
          0.0003057100811198754,
          0.0003346418582374777,
          0.00037649014801430236,
          0.0003857204982404272,
          0.00041353688441470027,
          0.00036309622636102046,
          0.00036679120428864675,
          0.00035224193323379893,
          0.00037808590706145395,
          0.00034864861206332365,
          0.00034082606310800734,
          0.00039146903079148587,
          0.00035890183002820764,
          0.0004495998690628722,
          0.000379815010704887,
          0.00043520444451750073,
          0.0003935860726699547,
          0.00032528210048546335,
          0.0003531787612512105,
          0.00042157372017820327,
          0.0003439146377300084
        ],
        "difference_mean": 0.00036655272754697766,
        "difference_sd": 5.0262468425824944e-05
      },
      {
        "key": "diabetes",
        "label": "Diabetes alone",
        "after": [
          0.13124911001700476,
          0.1314579501911298,
          0.13123169681283142,
          0.13121506914726727,
          0.13129303899902484,
          0.1312307477139621,
          0.1311354806408528,
          0.13125625085542364,
          0.131273778602516,
          0.13128534062715802,
          0.13129794240510248,
          0.13121291143839992,
          0.1311866717145244,
          0.13135644188894333,
          0.1312089985205336,
          0.13121393772833223,
          0.13120646590570031,
          0.13127657806126483,
          0.1313633955061562,
          0.13123725716923923,
          0.13118485007156377,
          0.13118727602258834,
          0.13126035588188506,
          0.13122539018001547,
          0.13112898072142928,
          0.13126981604471463,
          0.13114051408715058,
          0.13122393911985608,
          0.13119455653258133,
          0.13123964944778232,
          0.1311576724431239,
          0.1311934651553844,
          0.13117883724216026,
          0.13127913470395147,
          0.13117846647919976,
          0.1312554273154884,
          0.13124169509741426,
          0.1312848128106149,
          0.13122876347090856,
          0.13136903196642571,
          0.13115415494802982,
          0.13118235627184308,
          0.13130702207348682,
          0.13104163527242177,
          0.1311692005883961,
          0.13126491067333518,
          0.13113491878508246,
          0.13117641888085782,
          0.13120547692742615,
          0.13127750850122957
        ],
        "before": 0.1308077792641753,
        "after_mean": 0.1312305060332343,
        "after_sd": 7.10911008737109e-05,
        "difference": [
          0.0004413307528294552,
          0.0006501709269544909,
          0.0004239175486561164,
          0.0004072898830919658,
          0.0004852597348495302,
          0.00042296844978678694,
          0.00032770137667748056,
          0.0004484715912483339,
          0.0004659993383406835,
          0.0004775613629827147,
          0.0004901631409271745,
          0.00040513217422460945,
          0.00037889245034908314,
          0.0005486626247680204,
          0.0004012192563583039,
          0.0004061584641569249,
          0.000398686641525009,
          0.00046879879708952577,
          0.0005556162419808885,
          0.00042947790506392414,
          0.00037707080738846876,
          0.00037949675841303376,
          0.00045257661770975455,
          0.0004176109158401664,
          0.00032120145725397786,
          0.0004620367805393266,
          0.00033273482297527246,
          0.0004161598556807755,
          0.00038677726840602444,
          0.00043187018360701934,
          0.00034989317894859595,
          0.00038568589120910324,
          0.000371057977984951,
          0.00047135543977616656,
          0.0003706872150244511,
          0.0004476480513130876,
          0.000433915833238957,
          0.0004770335464396036,
          0.00042098420673325476,
          0.0005612527022504088,
          0.0003463756838545107,
          0.00037457700766777013,
          0.0004992428093115175,
          0.00023385600824646358,
          0.00036142132422078976,
          0.00045713140915987216,
          0.0003271395209071548,
          0.00036863961668251455,
          0.00039769766325084555,
          0.00046972923705426717
        ],
        "difference_mean": 0.0004227267690589825,
        "difference_sd": 7.10911008737109e-05
      },
      {
        "key": "joint",
        "label": "Both together",
        "after": [
          0.13178478655035358,
          0.13200591999041447,
          0.1317394414616004,
          0.13170902721040353,
          0.13179567770889622,
          0.13163918208534253,
          0.13159226291383055,
          0.1317764880374229,
          0.1317166093432577,
          0.13178673708814956,
          0.13179113998473263,
          0.1317521130870582,
          0.13164986834245854,
          0.13195011435992682,
          0.13154289259735383,
          0.1316949348506433,
          0.13167586347891946,
          0.13185570882879732,
          0.1319995401087529,
          0.1318085138371526,
          0.13172521454694222,
          0.13172437390808464,
          0.13180447676346743,
          0.13178970152189906,
          0.13159751362502847,
          0.13180425509439367,
          0.13172179307028414,
          0.1317059264627855,
          0.13168030660023147,
          0.131693118284263,
          0.13163639001217706,
          0.13171884424166,
          0.1317051104431533,
          0.13184715866890695,
          0.13170000928278403,
          0.13177055634289764,
          0.13177303847896854,
          0.13180200361034744,
          0.1317471087275654,
          0.13186374250294206,
          0.13168998800877188,
          0.13169487096174223,
          0.1319003235230855,
          0.13158036900474385,
          0.1317636955553268,
          0.13182635764622475,
          0.1315944785851837,
          0.13168615305012482,
          0.1317635027194927,
          0.1317882037177648
        ],
        "before": 0.1308077792641753,
        "after_mean": 0.1317473081365342,
        "after_sd": 9.812728352763844e-05,
        "difference": [
          0.0009770072861782775,
          0.0011981407262391663,
          0.0009316621974251038,
          0.0009012479462282286,
          0.0009878984447209138,
          0.0008314028211672264,
          0.0007844836496552487,
          0.0009687087732475896,
          0.0009088300790824066,
          0.0009789578239742525,
          0.0009833607205573247,
          0.0009443338228828924,
          0.0008420890782832313,
          0.0011423350957515122,
          0.000735113333178522,
          0.0008871555864679859,
          0.0008680842147441581,
          0.0010479295646220188,
          0.0011917608445775885,
          0.0010007345729773076,
          0.0009174352827669152,
          0.0009165946439093353,
          0.0009966974992921263,
          0.0009819222577237552,
          0.0007897343608531671,
          0.000996475830218363,
          0.0009140138061088376,
          0.0008981471986101996,
          0.000872527336056167,
          0.0008853390200876943,
          0.0008286107480017513,
          0.0009110649774846935,
          0.0008973311789780003,
          0.001039379404731644,
          0.0008922300186087195,
          0.0009627770787223322,
          0.0009652592147932348,
          0.0009942243461721345,
          0.0009393294633900928,
          0.0010559632387667495,
          0.0008822087445965743,
          0.0008870916975669274,
          0.0010925442589101997,
          0.0007725897405685411,
          0.0009559162911514929,
          0.0010185783820494398,
          0.0007866993210083884,
          0.0008783737859495155,
          0.0009557234553173866,
          0.0009804244535895068
        ],
        "difference_mean": 0.0009395288723588968,
        "difference_sd": 9.812728352763844e-05
      },
      {
        "key": "within",
        "label": "Heart disease within diabetes",
        "after": [
          0.1309769650950947,
          0.13078655551370397,
          0.13087147158818804,
          0.13085345342827542,
          0.1307961754045071,
          0.13086475098535583,
          0.1307864711149505,
          0.13086865410035425,
          0.13085821445457732,
          0.13082772967995265,
          0.13083682317902212,
          0.1308401737852875,
          0.13092021706710313,
          0.13089351243347253,
          0.1310059416505938,
          0.130818987414746,
          0.1308980002075124,
          0.130958546204301,
          0.13088521279190785,
          0.13075504678406788,
          0.1308535999098308,
          0.13085681411636746,
          0.13085582221923828,
          0.13098725984681128,
          0.13081122299830297,
          0.13085935126331516,
          0.13085766119633824,
          0.130931083419276,
          0.1307348434024747,
          0.1309143219059867,
          0.1309418886686026,
          0.1308193968439491,
          0.1309428613123465,
          0.13077293549005778,
          0.13083811969023187,
          0.1308925125886381,
          0.13081344797637268,
          0.13083343046974294,
          0.1308544357830933,
          0.13090128460688102,
          0.13079475929517292,
          0.13088730562918086,
          0.1308857900571318,
          0.13088293188305858,
          0.1308579825223506,
          0.13085651732363118,
          0.13082815247446902,
          0.13095786563588419,
          0.1308037982820245,
          0.13092664407338397
        ],
        "before": 0.1308077792641753,
        "after_mean": 0.13086513887534237,
        "after_sd": 5.98774821948753e-05,
        "difference": [
          0.00016918583091940498,
          -2.122375047133862e-05,
          6.369232401273739e-05,
          4.567416410011793e-05,
          -1.1603859668196659e-05,
          5.697172118052096e-05,
          -2.1308149224796846e-05,
          6.0874836178947955e-05,
          5.043519040201505e-05,
          1.9950415777347796e-05,
          2.9043914846815788e-05,
          3.239452111220009e-05,
          0.00011243780292782835,
          8.573316929721964e-05,
          0.00019816238641848227,
          1.1208150570707343e-05,
          9.022094333710484e-05,
          0.00015076694012569614,
          7.743352773253998e-05,
          -5.2732480107425816e-05,
          4.5820645655503256e-05,
          4.903485219215353e-05,
          4.804295506297129e-05,
          0.00017948058263597688,
          3.4437341276671862e-06,
          5.157199913985444e-05,
          4.98819321629318e-05,
          0.0001233041551007008,
          -7.293586170059596e-05,
          0.00010654264181139683,
          0.00013410940442729058,
          1.1617579773803843e-05,
          0.00013508204817119784,
          -3.4843774117526705e-05,
          3.0340426056568726e-05,
          8.473332446279347e-05,
          5.668712197370862e-06,
          2.5651205567633895e-05,
          4.6656518917997936e-05,
          9.350534270571864e-05,
          -1.3019969002381337e-05,
          7.952636500554999e-05,
          7.801079295649549e-05,
          7.515261888327296e-05,
          5.020325817528537e-05,
          4.873805945587728e-05,
          2.037321029371708e-05,
          0.00015008637170887962,
          -3.980982150791901e-06,
          0.0001188648092086686
        ],
        "difference_mean": 5.735961116707822e-05,
        "difference_sd": 5.9877482194875306e-05
      }
    ],
    "protocol": {
      "repeats": 50,
      "seed": 42,
      "n": 16142,
      "metric": "Brier",
      "status": "exploratory fixed-model diagnostic",
      "sd": "sample SD across shuffles; ddof=1; conditional on fitted model and evaluation rows",
      "subgroups": "Shuffle heart disease within observed diabetes categories only; not full conditional PFI.",
      "joint": "Same row permutation for both inputs preserves their observed joint table; other dependencies can be disrupted."
    }
  },
  "presentation": {
    "row_diagrams": "schematic symbols only; no patient-level values or probabilities",
    "empirical_results": "aggregate fixed-model, temporal-test measurements"
  }
}